Non League VALUE BETS – 28th JANUARY
In this weekend’s bumper Non League version of ZICOBALL‘s Non League Value Bets – 28th January’ betting preview:
- Dulwich Hamlet vs Eastbourne Borough Preview
- Oxford City vs Weymouth Preview
- Havant & Waterlooville vs Hampton & Richmond Preview
- Worthing vs Dartford Preview
- Boston vs Scarborough Preview
- Darlington vs Spennymoor Preview
Matthew O’Regan is back on tipping duties. This time, though, he’s turning his hand to non-league football…
Dulwich Hamlet vs Eastbourne Borough
Starting the article in South London at Champion Hill, as Dulwich Hamlet entertains Eastbourne Borough.
At first glance, this game screams goals. But, delve deeper, and it screams even more goals. Gavin Rose’s side sees an average of 3.48 goals per game, scoring 40 and conceding 47 in 25. The gentle giant Danny Mills is a crucial reason for Dulwich’s form in front of goal, with nine goals already this season for the 31-year-old.
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 10/13 games at Champion Hill and 20/25 overall this season. Their recent games are testaments to how inconsistent the South Londoners are. A 2-1 win at Dover was followed by a 4-1 demolition from Farnborough in front of their own fans before travelling to Welling and winning 4-2. This was followed up by a 4-3 loss at Slough before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat to league leaders Ebbsfleet. What is clear to see is that despite Rose’s side’s inconsistency with results, goals remain consistent.
Saturday’s visitors are an Eastbourne Borough side who aren’t shy of a goal or two. Over 2.5 has landed in 18/28 for ‘Boro, including 4 of their last 6- the other two ending in a 2-0 defeat. Danny Bloor’s side sits 8th, one position outside the playoff berth. Their games average 3.2 goals per game, with 47 scored and 43 conceded in 28.
With two teams gluttonous with goals, I expect an end-to-end thriller in South London.
- Pick: Over 2.75 Asian Goal line @ 1.90 – bet365
Non League Value Bets – 28th January odds via bet365 as of 09:00 January 27th – Prices may now differ from those stated above.
Oxford City vs Weymouth
Next on the agenda is a big game at both ends of the table, as Oxford City host Weymouth at the RAW Charging stadium.
At 32, Ross Jenkins is on the young side for a manager, though he’s wise beyond his years. With Oxford City flying high in 5th, Jenkins may be one to watch in the managerial scene in the coming years. Strong home form has been a huge reason for their impressive start to the season, picking up 26 points in 14 home games. They also scored 2+ in 8/14. The Hoops’ striker must be licking their lips at the prospect of facing the worst defence in the league.
The Terras have conceded 48 in 24 games, with 27 of these coming in their 12 away games. Of these 12, Weymouth have conceded 2+ in 8 of them. Bobby Wilkinson’s side are on a worrying bout of form, losing their last four and conceding 2+ in all four. His side will have to improve greatly if they are to get a result from Oxfordshire.
The home side’s odds of winning (1.57) are a bit short on its own, but adding them to score 2+ brings the odds up. Repeating the 2-0 win in the reverse fixture will see this bet land comfortably.
- Pick: Oxford City win & O1.5 goals @ 1.83 – bet365
Non League Value Bets – 28th January odds via bet365 as of 09:00 January 27th – Prices may now differ from those stated above.
Havant & Waterlooville vs Hampton & Richmond
Third-placed Havant & Waterlooville host 19th placed Hampton & Richmond Borough in the long team name derby.
With 52 points in 25 games, Havant are flying. However, they’re still eight points behind league leaders Ebbsfleet, a testament to how hard the National League South is. The Hawks also boast 56 goals in 25, with Muhammadu Faal, James Roberts, Jake McCarthy and Charlie Ruff all inside the 20 top scorers in the league. Add the fit again Jason Prior to the mix, and Paul Doswell has serious firepower. So much so that they have the most goals scored per game (2.24).
The Beavers must be dreading facing a trip to the Westleigh to face such a potent attack, especially off the back of 6 games without a win. In fact, Mel Gwinnet has only guided his team to one victory in the last 12 in all competitions. With 1.7 goals conceded per away game and his side lurking one point off the relegation zone, things are not looking good for the beavers.
Like Oxford City, Havant’s win price is perhaps too low to back on its own, but adding the home side to score 2+ gives the bet some juice and makes it backable.
- Pick: Haven’t & Waterlooville win & O1.5 goals @ 1.80 – bet365
Non League Value Bets – 28th January odds via bet365 as of 09:00 January 27th – Prices may now differ from those stated above.
Worthing vs Dartford
Staying on the south coast to end the southern section of this article, where 6th placed Worthing hosts 2nd placed Dartford.
Momentum is building in Worthing. The Rebels seemed destined for promotion from the Isthmian Premier Division until Covid cruelly curtailed their season. However, Adam Hinshelwood’s side finally got their deserved promotion in the 21/22 season and have taken the National League south by storm, playing attractive football whilst developing young talent. However, as is to be expected for a newly promoted team, Worthing have found consistency hard to come by, which is why they’ve been unable to keep up with the division’s front runners thus far. In front of big crowds at Woodside Road, Worthing have flattered to deceive, picking up 20 points from 14- ranking them 9th in this department.
They may find it hard to improve on this record, with the rampant Dartford visiting Sussex on Saturday. The Darts have matched leaders Ebbsfleet toe-to-toe and sit one point off their Kent counterparts. With 12 points from their last five, Dartford are the form side in the league. Alan Dowson’s side also has the 4th best away record in the league, with 26 points from 14 away games. Dartford’s last three away counters have been very fruitful, winning 3-1 at third-placed Havant, toppling table toppers Ebbsfleet 4-1 before routinely beating lowly Cheshunt 3-1. Dartford seemed underpriced in all of these games, and I feel they are again for this encounter.
Whilst the 2.90 odds for a Dartford win represent value, I’m keen to take them on the handicap instead. A draw secures half a win, and a victory sees the whole bet cash. For a side who have only lost 4/14 on their travels, it’s a bet I like a lot.
- Pick: Dartford +0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 – bet365
Non League Value Bets – 28th January odds via bet365 as of 09:00 January 27th – Prices may now differ from those stated above.
Boston v Scarborough
Now, we’re taking our expertise a mere 200 miles north to Boston with the first of two bets from the National League North.
Boston have flattered to deceive this season, with the Pilgrims only outside the relegation zone on goal difference. With 44 goals conceded, Ian Culverhouse’s side unwantedly boasts the worst defence in the league. After a mini-November revival, Boston have returned to their normal selves, losing six and only winning one of their last eight games. In 14-goal man Scott Pollock, Boston have the league’s second-top scorer. With uncertainty over his future, Boston United season hangs in the balance.
With a leaky defence, the last thing Ian Culverhouse would’ve wanted is to face a Scarborough side who have the second-best attack in the league with 49 goals. The Seadogs occupy fifth place after winning promotion via the playoffs last season. Jonathan Greening has built an exciting team and back-to-back promotions may be on the cards.
Another trend I’ve noticed this season is the pricing of Boston. Most times I’ve checked their games they seem to be favourites, which is baffling considering the poor performances mixed in with the toxicity at the club. Odds of 3.00 for Scarborough to win seems large, considering the Seadogs sit 19 points ahead of Saturday’s hosts. As ever, I am going to play it safe and side with the handicap.
- Pick: Scarborough +0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 – bet365
Non League Value Bets – 28th January odds via bet365 as of 09:00 January 27th – Prices may now differ from those stated above.
Darlington vs Spennymoor
What better way to end a non-league article than with a local rivalry? Less than 15 miles separate Darlington and Spennymoor, with both clubs enduring unique journeys to get to where they are today.
Spennymoor FC was established 18 years ago, overseeing a rapid rise through the ranks. Now under the stewardship of Bernard Morley, The Moors are hoping to take the next step and gain promotion to the National League for the first time in their short history. Despite sitting in 15th, Spennymoor are only 5 points off the playoffs with a game in hand. Thirteen points from their last five have Moors fans dreaming of a late playoff push. Morley’s side have been inconsistent away from home, but their travels certainly aren’t shy of a goal or 2. With 19 goals scored and 22 conceded in 13 away games, Moors’ away games average over three goals per game.
Over 2.5 has landed in 8/13 matches away from the Brewery Field.
Darlington have existed 122 years longer than the new boys on the block and were playing in Division Three when Spennymoor were created. They ended a 68-year Football League spell in 1989, and it has been a turbulent ride since. After a solid 13th-placed finish last season, The Lady in Black are looking to return to the National League for the first time since 2011, when they were demoted a few leagues due to financial issues. However, Alun Armstrong has built a team capable of promotion, with his side sat 3rd behind AFC Fylde and King’s Lynn. With 50 goals scored in 26 games, Darlington are the league’s top scorers. Mark Beck tops the goalscoring charts with 15, with Jack Lambert and Jacob Hazel also boasting double digits for goals.
Darlo struggle at home, with only 21 points in 13 games. However, their home games have been a gold mine for goal backers, with games at Blackwell Meadows averaging 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 has landed in 9/13 home games and 17/26 overall, putting Darlington top of the over 2.5 goal table.
With two in-form sides with leaky defences facing off, I expect goals in the North.
- Pick: Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 – bet365
Non League Value Bets – 28th January odds via bet365 as of 09:00 January 27th – Prices may now differ from those stated above.
To cap off proceedings, it wouldn’t be the weekend without a long shot acca at 128.82:
Scarborough win
Darlington v Spennymoor – BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Dulwich v Eastbourne – BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Havant win & Over 1.5 Goals
Oxford City win & Over 1.5 Goals
Dartford win
Words by Matthew O’Regan – @Matthew_ORegan