Championship To Stay Up Odds: Survival

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Championship to Stay Up Survival Odds - zicoball

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The second tier is hotting up to be a mad dash for playoff football at one end, though our focus at zicoball is on the Championship to Stay Up Survival Odds at the other. Despite introducing new blood in the dugouts, any of the five or six teams vying for safety this season could end up in the bottom three in what is the most unforgiving of divisions.

Can Danny Roll the dice and land in safe waters? Will Queens Park range between 21st and above? And will the Terriers possess as much bite as their bark in the season’s final stages?

Championship To Stay Up Survival Odds: Clinging to life in the second-tier

    Frustratingly, no bookmaker odds are available, but this page will be the place to visit whenever that changes for regular updates.

    Until then, we’ll provide the odds so that when any Championship to Stay Up Survival Odds go live, this page can be a convenient guide to whether any value can be had with the bookmakers.

    Team Survival Odds Implied Probability
    Rotherham 8.50 11.8%
    Huddersfield 4.50 22.2%
    QPR 3.00 33.3%
    Sheffield Wednesday 3.00 33.3%
    Plymouth Argyle 1.50 66.7%

     


    Sheffield Wednesday

    This Danny Rohl appointment by Chansiri might be a masterstroke from Sheffield Wednesday owner Dejphon Chansiri. At the time of writing, the Owls gaffer has locked in 6/17 wins throughout the infancy of his Wednesday career.

    It looks as if the young German is loving every minute, and he said as much to The Athletic, “It feels so good here. I enjoy going to training every day. I get into my car and spend the whole day at the office – I love it so much.”

    His impact on the squad emanates from Wednesday captain Barry Bannan, who said in a recent interview, “He is destined for the top and is probably the best manager I have had in my career. He has shown me things on the tactics board, in meetings and in games that I have never seen any manager do.” 

    He ticks all the boxes, but is the damage already done regarding Championship survival? It is going to be one hell of a slog. One thing is certain: Wednesday has the right man in charge if the plan is to make continual improvements with this group of players.


    Huddersfield Town

    Will Kevin Nagel’s decision to tear up the script and give Darren Moore the boot have the desired effect? It worked in that part of the world last season with Neil Warnock, but could lightning strike twice?

    We don’t have the answers, but the proof will be in the pudding. What do Huddersfield do now? Is it a stop-gap short-term appointment to keep the Terriers in the division, or do they follow suit behind Ian Foster, Danny Rohl and Marti Cifuentes with one eye on the future?

    Whether they can stay up hinges on this next appointment. Considering the forward strides taken by those fighting the same relegation battle, it won’t be straightforward.


    QPR

    Marti Cifuentes’ tenure as the manager of Queens Park Rangers has brought a notable impact on the team’s performances. During his first six league games in charge at Loftus Road, Cifuentes led QPR to three wins and two draws, losing just once to Norwich. 

    Cifuentes’ first victory as QPR’s manager was particularly memorable. Against Stoke City, QPR claimed a 4-2 victory, their first win in 13 matches and only their second at home since the previous October. Following his opening six games, though, QPR went on a seven-game winless stretch until a 2-0 Millwall win nearer the end of January.

    Regardless, Cifuentes has undoubtedly improved the R’s. To date, the hallmark of his ‘success’ at QPR is his side’s improvement in open-play defensive situations and the targeted opposition pressing in tandem. These are areas where QPR were repeatedly caught lacking under Ainsworth.

    Whether it’s enough to keep this squad in the division is another question entirely. They’ll need to rely on quality from the likes of Chair and Willock converting low xG opportunities to swing games like they did (0.02, 0.04, 0.04 and 0.12xG) in Cifuentes’s fruitful early spell. 

    If Cifuentes had an opportunity to mould this squad since the summer, you’d likely see a touch of daylight between themselves and the relegation places – the same goes for Danny Rohl’s Owls. They weren’t afforded that luxury, so, for us, they’ll be neck and neck with Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield for the final two relegation spots.


    Plymouth Argyle

    The 12.00 to get relegated on bet365 is a significant, tempting price. The Greens are certainly not guaranteed to stay up, nor do they have an abundance of Championship experience in the squad to steer them to safety without any concerns.

    However, this Argyle outfit feels like it has enough to consistently pick up points both home and away despite still being without an Away victory on the road this season. It’s something new head coach Ian Foster will be targetting in the coming weeks to get the unwanted hoodoo off their backs.

    Adam Forshaw has been brought in from Norwich to appease the lack of experience in camp, while Darko Gyabi makes his way from Leeds United to form an intriguing new midfield partnership. The biggest plus of the January transfer window, though, has to be Morgan Whittaker remaining in Plymouth until the end of the season. Premier League clubs are reportedly circling for the man Argyle paid just £1m for in the summer, and it’s no surprise considering his output in the second tier this season.

    Argyle should be a Championship club next season, but improvements in Sheffield Wednesday, QPR, and Huddersfield still cast a lingering doubt over Home Park.


    zicoball predicts the Championship Relegation Picture

    Predicting that Rotherham is gone without a trace is not too outlandish. The task ahead looks beyond reach with the squad’s current crop of quality. 

    We’ve outlined the Championship to Stay Up Survival Odds above, though who fills the other two positions is anyone’s guess. You can be sure there will be plenty of twists and turns from here until the end of the season. The zicoball team have pieced together how we see the final standings shaping up:

    # Team Expected Points
    20 Plymouth Argyle 55
    21 QPR 52
    22 Sheffield Wednesday 47
    23 Huddersfield 45
    24 Rotherham 35

     


    Recently Relegated From the Championship

    Each of Wigan Athletic, Blackpool and Reading said goodbye to their Championship status in 2022/23. Interestingly, that was the fourth occasion in the previous ten years where the Latics dropped from the Championship to League 1.

    It was a six-point deduction that rubber-stamped Reading’s relegation last season. The Royals (44) would have leapfrogged Cardiff’s 49 points and finished the campaign level with QPR and Rotherham (50) with six extra points.

    Relegations in Previous Ten Championship Seasons

    1. 2013/2014: Doncaster Rovers, Barnsley, Yeovil Town
    2. 2014/2015: Millwall, Wigan Athletic, Blackpool
    3. 2015/2016: Charlton Athletic, Milton Keynes Dons, Bolton Wanderers
    4. 2016/2017: Blackburn Rovers, Wigan Athletic, Rotherham United
    5. 2017/2018: Sunderland, Burton Albion, Barnsley
    6. 2018/2019: Rotherham United, Bolton Wanderers, Ipswich Town
    7. 2019/2020: Charlton Athletic, Wigan Athletic, Hull City
    8. 2020/2021: Sheffield Wednesday, Rotherham United, Wycombe Wanderers
    9. 2021/2022: Derby County, Peterborough United, Barnsley
    10. 2022/2023: Wigan Athletic, Blackpool, Reading

    Among the teams relegated from the English Football League Championship over the past ten campaigns, it’s Blackpool, in the 2014/2015 season, which finished with the lowest points haul. 

    The Seasiders ended that campaign with only 26 points. This historically low tally reflects a particularly challenging season for the club, both on and off the pitch. 


    Outright Betting Tips

    Outright betting, also known as ante-post betting before the season gets underway, involves predicting the outcome of the Championship, in this case, rather than a single match. 

    This type of betting offers the potential for higher payouts due to the longer odds, but it also requires careful consideration and strategy. With that in mind, here are some outright betting tips:

    Outright Betting Tips: From Exchanges to Timing

    1. Understanding Value: In outright betting, finding value is key. This means looking for opportunities where the available odds represent a higher probability than the actual probability of the outcome.
    2. Consider the Favorites: Despite the lower odds on offer, favourites in the Championship can sometimes be a safe bet. For example, Leicester were 6.00 to win the Championship before the 2023/24 season got underway in the summer. Looking at the lay of the land now, you’d have to say that was a pretty hefty price. Nevertheless, don’t rely solely on the favourites, as upsets are common in sports, especially in the Championship.
    3. Timing is Crucial: Odds fluctuate throughout the season. Placing a bet before the season starts can offer great value. In other cases, waiting for the season to progress might provide opportunities not afforded to punters in the summer. In 2023/24, after Coventry City recorded just two wins in 15 games from the end of August to late into November, you could back the Sky Blues to record a top-half finish at 2.00 as they sat just above the relegation zone. Fast forward to February, and Mark Robins’ men are in the playoff mix and will likely stay there. The outright opportunities are plentiful if you know where to look.
    4. Betting Exchanges: Consider using betting exchanges for outright betting, as they offer better odds than traditional bookmakers. Betting exchanges, like Betfair and Matchbook, are platforms where individuals can bet against each other (peer-to-peer) rather than against a conventional bookmaker. In these exchanges, you can either back (bet) or lay (bet against) an outcome. This approach allows users to act as bookmakers, setting or requesting odds.